The 2026 Capital Markets Test: Which Treasuries Can Still Raise Money?

Hello and welcome to Bitcoin Balance Sheet, the twice weekly email from Bitcoin Treasuries, where we track the latest in corporate Bitcoin buying.

Each Monday, you'll receive a quick blast on the top buyers over the last week. We'll follow that up every Friday with digest and analysis. Enjoy!

Stacking Sats Inc. 

Official IT partner at BitcoinTreasuries, Stacking Sats Inc via its subsidiary, Framework IT, is a managed IT services firm with a 17-year track record of providing best-in-class IT support, strategy, and cybersecurity, boasting high recurring revenue and long-term client contracts. It’s also one of the top 20 holders of Bitcoin among global private companies.

For more information:

The 2026 Capital Markets Test

The Bitcoin treasury sector entered 2026 facing a capital markets reality check.

With 33 of the top 100 companies trading below 1.0x mNAV — where equity issuance becomes mathematically dilutive — most treasuries confronted a choice. Either pause accumulation or destroy per-share value through capital raises at current discounts.

Meanwhile, the preferred equity financing model that enabled companies to raise billions of non-dilutive capital throughout the second half of 2025 largely disappeared, as evidenced by Strategy’s shift to 96% common stock issuance by November and December.

The result? Access to capital markets has stratified into three distinct tiers, separating companies that can continue systematic accumulation from those waiting for Bitcoin rallies to reopen financing windows, to those facing severe structural challenges.

Tier 1: Still Has Access

Defining characteristics: Companies that are large enough for multiple institutional issuance even when mNAV compresses below 1.0x, or maintaining mNAV above 1.0x with demonstrated access to capital markets.

Strategy (MSTR): 672,497 BTC, mNAV 0.82x. The undisputed leader reported $11.7 billion remaining in its ATM program and continues funding purchases through equity issuance despite trading at an 18% discount to Bitcoin NAV. Scale offers Strategy some significant advantages, as it has built institutional relationships over years, daily trading volumes supports large raises, and the company commands a worldwide shareholder base that accepts dilution in exchange for total accumulation growth. Strategy can issue $500 million at 0.82x mNAV and still find buyers — a luxury unavailable to smaller treasuries attempting the same scheme.

Metaplanet (MTPLF): 35,102 BTC; mNAV 1.14x. Maintains premium valuations and continues accessing equity markets, including opening issuance to overseas investors. The company led by CEO Simon Gercovich shows systematic accumulation, transparent communication, and executing on preferred equity issuance that delivered returns appears to sustain investor confidence whereas others lost it. Most importantly, Metaplanet offers Bitcoin exposure for investors that can’t find easy access for it in tax-punitive Japan.

Major Miners: Riot (RIOT), CleanSpark (CLSK), Hut 8 (HUT). These qualify as Tier 1 through their operational businesses that generate revenue, which reduces the dependence other companies have on equity raises. Indeed, when capital markets tighten for pure treasuries, miners can still access financing by pointing to cash flow and mining infrastructure — a structural advantage that pure-play treasury vehicles simply don’t have.

XCE

An executive recruitment group that combines a profitable recruitment business with a Bitcoin treasury strategy. The company turns over a decade of executive recruitment experience and four years of Bitcoin accumulation into a public Bitcoin‑powered growth engine, using a proven operating business to drive Bitcoin treasury accumulation.

For more information:

Tier 2: Conditional Access

Defining characteristics: Typically 0.5x to 1.0x mNAV, capable of raising capital when windows open but stalled when mNAV compresses.

Twenty One Capital (XXI): 43,514 BTC, mNAV 0.79x. The #3 global holder trades at a 21% discount, creating potentially difficult capital raising dynamics when attempting dilutive issuance below NAV. Still, Jack Mallers’ company is building a portfolio of Bitcoin businesses designed to generate cash flow and reduce dependence on capital markets access. That could change, however, if it delivers on its promises.

Semler Scientific (SMLR): 5,048 BTC, mNAV 0.58x. The company trades at a 41% discount to Bitcoin NAV and uses an ATM program to fund purchases when market conditions allow. The company demonstrated the ability to raise capital and execute systematic buying during 2025, but the sub-1.0x mNAV creates systemic timing dependencies — equity issuance at current valuations dilutes per-share Bitcoin holdings, requiring management to choose between continuing accumulation (at the cost of hurting shareholder value) or pausing purchases until mNAV recovers.

Mid-Tier Companies: ProCap Financial (BRR, 5,000 BTC, 0.74x mNAV), Sequans (SQNS, 2,264 BTC, 0.56x mNAV), and others share the same pattern — they can raise capital when Bitcoin rallies create accretive windows, but get shut out when mNAVs compress. The difference between being able to deploy $10 million vs. $0 often comes down to whether Bitcoin is up or down that month.

The Tier 2 reality: These treasuries will accumulate in waves, becoming aggressive during rallies, and silent during consolidation. Total 2026 additions depend more on Bitcoin’s price action than management decisions.

Tier 3: Severe Structural Challenges

Defining characteristics: Below 0.5x mNAV, limited liquidity, and a spot where equity issuance becomes value-destructive rather than accretive.

The Deep Discount Cohort: Bitcoin Standard Treasury (CEPO, 30,021 BTC, 0.10x), DDC Enterprise Limited (DDC, 1,183 BTC, 0.09x), ZOOZ Power (ZOOZ, 1,036 BTC, 0.06x), Microcloud Hologram (HOLO, 2,353 BTC, 0.19x) trade at 80% to 95% discounts that could either represent temporary mispricings, market expectations of eventual Bitcoin sales to fund operations, or perhaps restructuring. In some cases, however, it’s likely that companies simply bought Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier, and not necessarily pivoting to become a pure-play Bitcoin treasury. Still, at 0.05x-0.10x mNAV, raising $1 million requires issuing equity representing $10 to $20 million in Bitcoin NAV, instantly destroying most value for existing shareholders.

Mid-Size Distressed: GD Culture Group (GDC, 7,500 BTC, 0.42x), and KindlyMD/Nakamoto (NAKA, 5,398 BTC, 0.37x) hold meaningful amounts of Bitcoin while trading at important discounts that suggest investors don’t expect for any continued accumulation from the company. What’s more, NAKA’s Nasdaq delisting threat compounds the problem — OTC trading would eliminate any remaining access to institutions altogether.

The Tier 3 constraint: Equity issuance destroys value, debt markets demand punitive rates, and operational cash flow (if any) burns rather than funds accumulation. These companies face a choice: sell Bitcoin to extend runway, restructure operations, or accept that having an active treasury strategy has effectively ended. Prenetics already took this path — publicly shifting focus from “buying more BTC” to operating business, maintaining holdings without new accumulation.

The three-tier structure points toward continued consolidation around a handful of dominant players. Strategy captured 77% of all corporate Bitcoin accumulation in 2025, and that concentration could intensify if only a handful of companies maintain consistent access to capital markets throughout 2026.

When Tier 2 companies pause during mNAV compression and Tier 3 exits accelerate, the gap widens further — potentially pushing Strategy’s market share toward 85-90% of total additions.

This creates meaningful concentration risk. But if Strategy slows its rate of accumulation or faces its own capital constraints, total corporate Bitcoin buying could collapse regardless of what smaller treasuries attempt.

Ultimately, the 2026 survivors will likely be companies that either maintained premium valuations through disciplined execution and transparent communication, or those that built revenue-generating businesses that reduce dependence on capital markets entirely.

Special thanks to our partners:

• AnchorWatch. AnchorWatch makes Bitcoin ownership safer and easier by combining advanced custody expertise with industry-grade insurance. As a Lloyd’s of London Coverholder, it writes specialized policies that address digital-asset risks, giving clients trusted coverage and peace of mind. Learn more: AnchorWatch

• Arch Lending. Get instant, secure loans backed by your Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Solana—no need to sell your assets. Arch Lending offers fast approvals and trusted custody for both individuals and institutions. Learn more: Arch Lending

• Cadena Bitcoin. A p2p bitcoin lending marketplace with a unique emphasis on working with treasury firms and businesses, as well as the savvy bitcoin-native investors who visit our website. Learn more: Cadena Bitcoin

• Coinkite. Coinkite is a leader in security and hardware manufacturing and the maker of some of the most iconic Bitcoin products, such as OPENDIME, COLDCARD, BLOCKCLOCK, SATSCARD, TAPSIGNER and SATSCHIP. Learn more: Coinkite

• Cryptio. Cryptio is an enterprise-grade accounting software platform built specifically for digital assets and cryptocurrencies. It enables businesses to transform blockchain transaction data from multiple exchanges and custodians into auditable financial records, supporting compliance with GAAP and IFRS standards. Learn more: Cryptio

• The Hemisphere Foundation. Hemisphere develops open-source solutions designed to help treasury teams securely manage, deploy, and optimize their BTC holdings, with benefits of self-custody and Bitcoin native deployment. Learn more: The Hemisphere Foundation

• Orange Wheel Advisors. Orange Wheel Advisors is a strategic consulting firm that helps companies navigate Bitcoin’s impact on corporate finance and competitive strategy. With expertise spanning treasury management, payments, capital structure, mining, and investor communications, they provide executive education, tailored strategies, and execution support to guide businesses through the global monetary transition. Learn more: Orange Wheel Advisors

• o21 Solutions. o21 develops and implements Bitcoin-powered corporate strategy, transforming value chains with strategic expertise and tailored advisory services, with a focus on both Treasury and Operations - balance sheet accumulation, mining, and payments. Reduce cycle time through the corporate Bitcoin adoption journey through our pre-packaged or tailored engagements. Learn more: o21 Solutions

• Psalion. Psalion is a Bitcoin and digital-asset yield manager that offers institutional‑style investment strategies to professional investors, family offices, corporates, and private clients via separately managed accounts and yield funds. Learn more: Psalion

• Secure Digital Markets (SDM) provides unparalleled liquidity, execution speed, and bespoke customer service, making it the top choice for institutional investors seeking reliable digital asset trading solutions. With deep expertise in capital markets and strict regulatory standards, SDM stands out as the premier platform for all digital asset treasury teams looking to optimize their trading and treasury operations. Learn more: Secure Digital Markets (SDM)

• Stacking Sats Inc. Official IT partner at BitcoinTreasuries, Stacking Sats Inc via its subsidiary, Framework IT, is a managed IT services firm with a 17-year track record of providing best-in-class IT support, strategy, and cybersecurity, boasting high recurring revenue and long-term client contracts. It’s also one of the top 20 holders of Bitcoin among global private companies. Learn more: Stacking Sats Inc

• XCE. An executive recruitment group that combines a profitable recruitment business with a Bitcoin treasury strategy. The company turns over a decade of executive recruitment experience and four years of Bitcoin accumulation into a public Bitcoin‑powered growth engine, using a proven operating business to drive Bitcoin treasury accumulation. Learn more: XCE

• Zaprite. Zaprite is a non-custodial payment platform that allows individuals and businesses to seamlessly accept both bitcoin (on-chain and lightning) and fiat payments in a unified, customizable checkout experience. Users can easily issue invoices, generate payment links, and connect multiple wallets or custodial accounts, all while handling their own funds directly. Learn more: Zaprite

Over To You: What Do You Track?

We want to make this the go-to resource for corporate Bitcoin strategy — and that means learning from our readers.

• What metrics or dashboards do you rely on to track the space?

• Which signals would you like us to explore in more depth?

• What tools would you like to see us integrate?

You can help shape the direction of this newsletter in 10 seconds.

Just hit reply, we read everything.