TD Cowen Ran the Numbers on Digital Credit. The Result Is Staggering.

Welcome to the Bitcoin Balance Sheet. Each Friday, we recap key insights from our podcast hosted by our very own Tyler Rowe

This week Tyler Rowe sat down with Yves-André Graf and Miller Cole to break down Strategy's Q2 call and the buyback behind it, where repurchasing barely 1% of notional preferred at a blended $88.40 lifted STRC 8% off its $86 low, with the USD reserve now covering 2.3 years of dividends ahead of October's S&P credit review. Meanwhile, TD Cowen's Lance Vitanza argued Stretch is a funding engine rather than a funding vehicle, sizing digital credit at $2.4 trillion if public treasuries eventually hold 10% of all Bitcoin ever mined.

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Saylor's Buyback Is Working: STRC Surges & Reserve Hits $4 Billion

The Q2 earnings call was a Stretch call, and the buyback that followed is a signal, not a spend. Yves and Miller Cole note Strategy has moved STRC 8% off its $86 low while repurchasing barely 1% of notional preferred, at a blended price near $88.40.

Miller's read is that management is buying credibility at the lowest capital cost – spend the full billion and STRC hits par with nothing left to defend it. Yves’ is that the USD reserve, now 2.3 years of dividend coverage, is the number October's S&P credit review will actually read. Both flag Saylor's admission that starting over, he would have skipped the converts and launched STRC alone.

Listen and subscribe for Yves and Miller's full thoughts on the buyback math and whether Strive can answer it.

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Wall Street Is Building A $2.4 Trillion Bitcoin Market

Stretch is a funding engine, not a funding vehicle. TD Cowen's Lance Vitanza frames Strategy as a two-layer model: STRC monetizes credit demand, MSTR converts it into Bitcoin per share. The sizing – if public treasuries hold 10% of all Bitcoin ever mined, 2.1 million coins, $800 billion, Stretch's 3-to-1 coverage implies $2.4 trillion of digital credit capacity.

His evidence is the drawdown: Bitcoin per share up 14-15% year-to-date while Bitcoin fell from $125,000 to $58,000, plus $15.5 billion raised that never matures. He expects par within six months even if Bitcoin does nothing, and calls S&P 500 inclusion a lagging indicator: rating agencies are always last to know.

Listen and subscribe for Lance's full thoughts on digital credit's addressable market and his $28 target on Strive.

Special thanks to our partners:

• AnchorWatch. AnchorWatch makes Bitcoin ownership safer and easier by combining advanced custody expertise with industry-grade insurance. As a Lloyd’s of London Coverholder, it writes specialized policies that address digital-asset risks, giving clients trusted coverage and peace of mind. Learn more: AnchorWatch

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