STRC's Journey Back to Par Is Nearly Over

Welcome to the Bitcoin Balance Sheet. Each Friday, we recap key insights from our podcast hosted by our very own Tyler Rowe.

Matt Cole and Ric Edelman both called $500,000 bitcoin by 2030. Cole’s path is a 50% CAGR on a weaker dollar, Edelman’s is 1% of global assets, and both said the 60/40 is broken and advisers still won’t hear a 1% pitch. On Takeover, Tyler, Chase, and Yves tracked STRC to within 30 cents of par after another $176 million in buybacks, and walked Strive’s Saturday warrant expiry: about 23.2 million warrants at $27, roughly $627 million if they all come in.

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The $627 Million Warrant Bomb

Tyler, Chase, and Yves walked the preferred stack and the warrant clock. STRC was about 30 cents from par after another $176 million in buybacks. SATA had held par for nearly seven weeks. Chase was watching whether par on STRC reflected back into MSTR as the market front-ran preferred-funded buying. Yves was the skeptic: daily dividends wouldn’t move institutions, and the real lever was the capital stack, not the payment clock.

The Strive math was the closer. About 23.2 million traditional warrants expired Saturday, October 10, at $27, with ASST a bit above $30. Full exercise was $627 million, roughly 7,300 bitcoin near $86,000 — enough to pass BSTR and put MARA in range. Yves noted the cash de-amplified a balance sheet management had talked up toward 60%, even 100%. Chase’s point was trust: Strive was on a podcast every day, Strategy had gone quiet, and credit is a trust business.

Listen and subscribe for the full take on STRC at par and whether Saturday’s warrants actually hit.

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$500,000 by 2030, and the Message Problem

Matt Cole and Ric Edelman both landed on $500,000 bitcoin by 2030, from different doors. Cole’s is a 50% CAGR for three or four years, bands of 30% to 70%, on a structurally weaker dollar he thinks Treasury, Trump, and Vance actually want. Edelman’s is allocation math: 1% of global assets is $500,000 a coin, 2% is a million. He has held since 2013 and has never sold.

Edelman argued the cap is messaging, not math. Advisers control about $10 trillion, and a 1% pitch is too small to justify the political risk. His DACFP paper now argues 10% conservative, 25% moderate, 40% aggressive. Cole agreed that band maximizes Sharpe, then said Strive does not care about Sharpe. No liquidation price, preferred equity instead of debt, amplification as high as the market will trust. Both called the 60/40 broken. Cole does not think AI fixes the debt crisis. Edelman called AI and crypto one plus one equals three.

Listen and subscribe for Cole and Edelman’s full case on $500,000 and why advisers still won’t buy it.

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