STRC Red Flag or Genius Trade?

Welcome to the Bitcoin Balance Sheet. Each Friday, we recap key insights from our podcast hosted by our very own Tyler Rowe.

The market is at a panic. STRC has crashed to $73, well below its $100 par and MSTR itself crashing to under $100, a significant psychological level. And Bitcoin crashing back down to $58,000

It's times like these you need to be aware of what's happening. This pushes STRC's effective yield way up over 15%. While STRC's depressed price creates a high yield opportunity on paper with big upside to par, panic like this is exactly where the gifts hide.

Now is the time to watch whether STRC can climb its way back to par.

Track it all on BitcoinTreasuries.net

• Livestream — Real-time $STRC tracking, with insight and analysis on the Digital Credit space on our X page
  

• STRC Tracker — Minute-by-minute accumulation, yield, price, and buying activity using our STRC BTC Accumulation Tracker

Orange Wheel Advisors is a strategic consulting firm that helps companies navigate Bitcoin’s impact on corporate finance and competitive strategy. With expertise spanning treasury management, payments, capital structure, mining, and investor communications, they provide executive education, tailored strategies, and execution support to guide businesses through the global monetary transition

What STRC at $73 Actually Means

With STRC crashing to the low-70s and MSTR getting hammered, Grain of Salt and Tim Kotzman joined Tyler Rowe to argue the panic is overdone. Buy STRC near $73 and you collect ~15%, plus ~33% upside if it climbs back to $100. People worry Bitcoin has to outrun the coupon; Grain of Salt notes Strategy's dashboard puts the real break-even at just 3.39% a year.

Kotzman pointed to the data. Even in this slump, Q1 2026 was Strategy's third-biggest buying quarter ever, and at this pace it hits a million coins by October 8. What people miss: Strategy buys most when mNAV is high, not when Bitcoin's cheap. The 32-BTC sale everyone panicked over proved nothing; debt-free SATA sold off the same week.

Listen and subscribe for the full breakdown on STRC's dividend math and whether Q3 buying slows down:

STRC, SATA, and the Case for Levered Bitcoin

Soleil, an options trader, True North analyst, and one of the most followed MSTR voices on X/Twitter, joins Tyler Rowe to talk treasury companies trading below 1x mNAV, the STRC selloff, and how he's positioning through it.

His main point: a sub-1x multiple doesn't worry him. Levered Bitcoin that survives the drawdowns ends up as more Bitcoin, which is what these companies are built to do, and while the amplification holds he expects Strategy to keep beating Bitcoin. On the preferreds, he reckons STRC has lagged SATA's bounce because capital rotated to SATA's daily dividend, not because STRC is broken. It just has to follow its variable-rate plan and bump the yield when it slips from par.

Listen and subscribe for Soleil's full take on mNAV, STRC versus SATA, and where he sees the bottom:

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• AnchorWatch. AnchorWatch makes Bitcoin ownership safer and easier by combining advanced custody expertise with industry-grade insurance. As a Lloyd’s of London Coverholder, it writes specialized policies that address digital-asset risks, giving clients trusted coverage and peace of mind. Learn more: AnchorWatch

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• Cadena Bitcoin. A p2p bitcoin lending marketplace with a unique emphasis on working with treasury firms and businesses, as well as the savvy bitcoin-native investors who visit our website. Learn more: Cadena Bitcoin

• Coinkite. Coinkite is a leader in security and hardware manufacturing and the maker of some of the most iconic Bitcoin products, such as OPENDIME, COLDCARD, BLOCKCLOCK, SATSCARD, TAPSIGNER and SATSCHIP. Learn more: Coinkite

• Cryptio. Cryptio is an enterprise-grade accounting software platform built specifically for digital assets and cryptocurrencies. It enables businesses to transform blockchain transaction data from multiple exchanges and custodians into auditable financial records, supporting compliance with GAAP and IFRS standards. Learn more: Cryptio

• Hemi. develops open-source solutions designed to help treasury teams securely manage, deploy, and optimize their BTC holdings, with benefits of self-custody and Bitcoin native deployment. Learn more: Hemi

• Orange Wheel Advisors. Orange Wheel Advisors is a strategic consulting firm that helps companies navigate Bitcoin’s impact on corporate finance and competitive strategy. With expertise spanning treasury management, payments, capital structure, mining, and investor communications, they provide executive education, tailored strategies, and execution support to guide businesses through the global monetary transition. Learn more: Orange Wheel Advisors

• o21 Solutions. o21 develops and implements Bitcoin-powered corporate strategy, transforming value chains with strategic expertise and tailored advisory services, with a focus on both Treasury and Operations - balance sheet accumulation, mining, and payments. Reduce cycle time through the corporate Bitcoin adoption journey through our pre-packaged or tailored engagements. Learn more: o21 Solutions

• Psalion. Psalion is a Bitcoin and digital-asset yield manager that offers institutional‑style investment strategies to professional investors, family offices, corporates, and private clients via separately managed accounts and yield funds. Learn more: Psalion

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• Stacking Sats Inc. Official IT partner at BitcoinTreasuries, Stacking Sats Inc via its subsidiary, Framework IT, is a managed IT services firm with a 17-year track record of providing best-in-class IT support, strategy, and cybersecurity, boasting high recurring revenue and long-term client contracts. It’s also one of the top 20 holders of Bitcoin among global private companies. Learn more: Stacking Sats Inc

• XCE. An executive recruitment group that combines a profitable recruitment business with a Bitcoin treasury strategy. The company turns over a decade of executive recruitment experience and four years of Bitcoin accumulation into a public Bitcoin‑powered growth engine, using a proven operating business to drive Bitcoin treasury accumulation. Learn more: XCE

• Zaprite. Zaprite is a non-custodial payment platform that allows individuals and businesses to seamlessly accept both bitcoin (on-chain and lightning) and fiat payments in a unified, customizable checkout experience. Users can easily issue invoices, generate payment links, and connect multiple wallets or custodial accounts, all while handling their own funds directly. Learn more: Zaprite