Strategy's 2026 Buying Spree: Can Saylor Sustain the Record Pace?

Hello and welcome to Bitcoin Balance Sheet, the twice weekly email from Bitcoin Treasuries, where we track the latest in corporate Bitcoin buying.

Each Monday, you'll receive a quick blast on the top buyers over the last week. We'll follow that up every Friday with digest and analysis. Enjoy!

Data Drop: Inside 2025’s $100 Billion Digital Asset Treasury Boom

Secure Digital Markets (SDM) and BitcoinTreasuries.net have released a new year-end research report examining the rapid rise of corporate Bitcoin treasuries — a market that surpassed $100 billion in 2025 and is still expanding.

The report breaks down how corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies work, who the major players are, and why institutional adoption is accelerating into 2026. It draws on SDM’s deep expertise in institutional execution, liquidity provision, and regulated digital asset markets, alongside proprietary data and analysis from BitcoinTreasuries.net.

Strategy in 2025: Will it make it to 1 million Bitcoin?

Strategy has deployed $3.37 billion to acquire 35,932 BTC in just the first three weeks of 2026. If the company manages to sustain that pace, it would imply the company tops 900,000 BTC in annual purchases.

Even though the staggering tempo marks Michael Saylor’s most aggressive accumulation period yet, the capital structure behind the buying reveals tension between ambitious goals and market realities.

This week’s 22,305 BTC purchase for $2.125 billion brings Strategy’s total holdings to 709,715 BTC worth approximately $70 billion. Combined with the previous week’s 13,627 BTC acquisition, Strategy has purchased an average of $177 million per day in Bitcoin purchases.

What happens if Strategy maintains this exact pace throughout 2026? Well, the company would acquire approximately 932,000 additional Bitcoin in 2026, pushing total holdings above 1.6 million BTC — more than even the most bullish of prognosticators.

Accounting for inevitable slowdowns, the current velocity suggests Strategy is targeting 400,000-600,000 BTC in annual accumulation. That’s roughly double the company'‘s 2024-2025 pace.

With an average purchase price of around $95,000 demonstrates Saylor’s willingness to buy aggressively rather than waiting for significant pullbacks. Meanwhile, Strategy’s $75,979 average cost basis across all 709,715 BTC creates approximately $18 billion in unrealized gains, providing a strong psychological cushion for continued buying even if Bitcoin continues to experience volatility and more market stress.

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The Capital Structure Split

But the mechanics behind these past weeks’ of purchases expose some critical constraints.

Strategy raised $2.125 billion through a lopsided mix: $1.827 billion (86%) from common stock sales and just $294 million (14%) from preferred equity (STRC). The company sold 10.4 million MSTR shares — direct dilution to existing common shareholders that reduced per-share Bitcoin ownership even as the absolute stack grew.

At Strategy’s current 0.725x mNAV (27.5% discount to Bitcoin NAV), every dollar of common stock issued buys only 73 cents of Bitcoin value. The company is effectively selling dollars for 73 cents and using proceeds to buy Bitcoin at spot prices.

Why the heavy reliance on dilutive common stock? The preferred market faces capacity constraints that prevent it from absorbing the volume Strategy requires. At current Bitcoin prices, amplifying 709,715 BTC at even 30% leverage would require roughly $16 billion in total preferred equity outstanding.

Strategy, however, has issued only a fraction of that amount, making the multi-year project of building sufficient STRC float a bottleneck.

The divergent performance reveals the capital structure tension. STRC traded above $100 par last week with strong institutional demand, while MSTR dropped 8% following this week's purchase announcement despite the company crossing 700,000 BTC.

Preferred buyers receive fixed-income exposure to Bitcoin with no dilution risk and 10% variable interest. On the other hand, common shareholders absorb dilution to fund purchases at a 27% discount to NAV, then watch the mNAV potentially compress further as markets price in future dilution.

The Runway Question

Strategy's at-the-market (ATM) program provides the infrastructure for continued aggressive buying.

The company maintains approximately $8.4 billion in remaining common stock capacity and $1.6 billion in STRF (Series A perpetual preferred) capacity available for issuance. Combined with the $3.6 billion remaining in STRC capacity and $20.3 billion in STRK capacity, Strategy theoretically has over $34 billion in total shelf capacity. That would be enough to sustain current buying pace for over 10 months before needing shareholder approval for expanded programs.

But capital availability doesn’t equal capital deployment wisdom. The critical question becomes whether accelerating purchases at 0.725x mNAV serves common shareholders better than slowing accumulation to let the mNAV recover. Strategy's management clearly believes faster buying creates long-term value through amplified Bitcoin exposure, even if near-term dilution pressures the stock.

Bull vs. Bear Cases

The bull case for MSTR recovery hinges on several factors.

First, if Bitcoin appreciates significantly in 2026 — particularly breaking above $150,000 to $200,000 — Strategy's 709,715 BTC would generate massive NAV gains that could overwhelm dilution concerns. Second, if STRC issuance accelerates and common stock dilution slows, the capital structure would shift toward the non-dilutive amplification model management prefers.

Third, institutional adoption of both MSTR and STRC could compress the discount as investors recognize Strategy's unique positioning.

The bear case centers on dilution fatigue. If Strategy continues issuing more than 10 million common shares weekly at compressed mNAVs, per-share Bitcoin metrics decline even as absolute holdings grow. The 0.725x mNAV could compress further if investors conclude that perpetual dilution will continue regardless of stock price.

Additionally, if Bitcoin enters a prolonged bear market, Strategy’s aggressive buying at $95,000+ average prices could face scrutiny.

Strategy's 2026 pace demonstrates Saylor's conviction remains unshaken. The $3.37 billion deployed in three weeks signals that capital markets access — though structurally challenged by the common stock dependency — remains robust enough to sustain aggressive accumulation.

Whether this velocity continues through year-end depends on Bitcoin's price action, investor appetite for continued dilution, and Strategy's success in scaling STRC issuance to reduce common stock dependency.

For now, Strategy has answered one question definitively: Saylor isn't slowing down. The 700,000 BTC milestone represents a waypoint, not a destination. The race toward 1 million Bitcoin continues funded primarily by common stock dilution at a discount to NAV, creating winners among preferred holders and raising difficult questions for common shareholders about whether faster accumulation at worse terms ultimately serves their interests.

Special thanks to our partners:

• AnchorWatch. AnchorWatch makes Bitcoin ownership safer and easier by combining advanced custody expertise with industry-grade insurance. As a Lloyd’s of London Coverholder, it writes specialized policies that address digital-asset risks, giving clients trusted coverage and peace of mind. Learn more: AnchorWatch

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• Cryptio. Cryptio is an enterprise-grade accounting software platform built specifically for digital assets and cryptocurrencies. It enables businesses to transform blockchain transaction data from multiple exchanges and custodians into auditable financial records, supporting compliance with GAAP and IFRS standards. Learn more: Cryptio

• The Hemisphere Foundation. Hemisphere develops open-source solutions designed to help treasury teams securely manage, deploy, and optimize their BTC holdings, with benefits of self-custody and Bitcoin native deployment. Learn more: The Hemisphere Foundation

• Orange Wheel Advisors. Orange Wheel Advisors is a strategic consulting firm that helps companies navigate Bitcoin’s impact on corporate finance and competitive strategy. With expertise spanning treasury management, payments, capital structure, mining, and investor communications, they provide executive education, tailored strategies, and execution support to guide businesses through the global monetary transition. Learn more: Orange Wheel Advisors

• o21 Solutions. o21 develops and implements Bitcoin-powered corporate strategy, transforming value chains with strategic expertise and tailored advisory services, with a focus on both Treasury and Operations - balance sheet accumulation, mining, and payments. Reduce cycle time through the corporate Bitcoin adoption journey through our pre-packaged or tailored engagements. Learn more: o21 Solutions

• Psalion. Psalion is a Bitcoin and digital-asset yield manager that offers institutional‑style investment strategies to professional investors, family offices, corporates, and private clients via separately managed accounts and yield funds. Learn more: Psalion

• Secure Digital Markets (SDM) provides unparalleled liquidity, execution speed, and bespoke customer service, making it the top choice for institutional investors seeking reliable digital asset trading solutions. With deep expertise in capital markets and strict regulatory standards, SDM stands out as the premier platform for all digital asset treasury teams looking to optimize their trading and treasury operations. Learn more: Secure Digital Markets (SDM)

• Stacking Sats Inc. Official IT partner at BitcoinTreasuries, Stacking Sats Inc via its subsidiary, Framework IT, is a managed IT services firm with a 17-year track record of providing best-in-class IT support, strategy, and cybersecurity, boasting high recurring revenue and long-term client contracts. It’s also one of the top 20 holders of Bitcoin among global private companies. Learn more: Stacking Sats Inc

• XCE. An executive recruitment group that combines a profitable recruitment business with a Bitcoin treasury strategy. The company turns over a decade of executive recruitment experience and four years of Bitcoin accumulation into a public Bitcoin‑powered growth engine, using a proven operating business to drive Bitcoin treasury accumulation. Learn more: XCE

• Zaprite. Zaprite is a non-custodial payment platform that allows individuals and businesses to seamlessly accept both bitcoin (on-chain and lightning) and fiat payments in a unified, customizable checkout experience. Users can easily issue invoices, generate payment links, and connect multiple wallets or custodial accounts, all while handling their own funds directly. Learn more: Zaprite

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