Hello and welcome to Bitcoin Balance Sheet, the twice weekly email from Bitcoin Treasuries, where we track the latest in corporate Bitcoin buying.

Each Monday, you'll receive a quick blast on the top buyers over the last week. We'll follow that up every Friday with digest and analysis. Enjoy!

Front Run: The Bitcoin Treasuries Pre-Party

Front Run is where Bitcoin conference week really begins.

Hosted by Bitcoin Treasuries Media and BitcoinTreasuries.net, this private kickoff brings together the operators, CFOs, allocators, founders, and board-level decision-makers shaping Bitcoin on the balance sheet.

No panels. No pitches. Just real conversations with the people building the treasury playbook — drinks in hand, poolside.

If Bitcoin on the balance sheet matters to you, this is the room to be in before the main stage lights up.

When: Sunday, April 26 | 2:00 PM – 11:00 PM PDT
Where: Stadium Swim, Las Vegas

Treasury Balance Sheets Under Water

In November 2025, when Bitcoin hovered near $90,000, most corporate treasury companies were already underwater. Roughly 65% of firms had bought the asset above the trading price, carrying billions in unrealized losses as Bitcoin slipped from its all-time high.

Today, with Bitcoin trading at around $63,000, that pressure has intensified into the sector’s first real balance-sheet stress test. An estimated 85% to 90% of treasury companies now sit below cost basis. And that includes some of the largest players, like Strategy.

Yet the response has not been capitulation. Instead, the downturn is exposing something much more consequential: which treasury strategies are structurally sound, and which depended on rising prices to survive.

$28 billion compression

The numbers tell a staggering story. 

Strategy, with its $76,037 average cost basis across 713,502 BTC, held an $11 billion cushion in November that has now shrunk to around $6.4 billion. 

Strive reported -17% unrealized losses in late January at a $105,850 average cost basis. At $63,000 Bitcoin, those losses approach 40%, cutting the value of its treasury by hundreds of millions.

Moreover, the top 100 treasury companies collectively hold 1,133,359 BTC. At $90,000, that represented $102 billion, but at $63,000, it's $78 billion. That’s a whopping $28 billion balance sheet compression. 

For companies that accumulated heavily above $80,000, the mark-to-market pressure has moved from uncomfortable to acute.

Despite the ongoing market stress, this isn’t capitulation but rather a test of capital structure.

Already by November we could see some early signs of liquidity stress. French-based Sequans Communications sold 970 BTC to reduce convertible debt, mining outlet Hut 8 reduced its holdings, cloud mining company Bitdeer sold more than it mined, while Genius Group and KindlyMD redeployed holdings. 

Now investors are asking themselves whether $63,000 per Bitcoin will bring with it more forced selling. 

Secure Digital Markets (SDM) 

SDM provides unparalleled liquidity, execution speed, and bespoke customer service, making it the top choice for institutional investors seeking reliable digital asset trading solutions. With deep expertise in capital markets and strict regulatory standards, SDM stands out as the premier platform for all digital asset treasury teams looking to optimize their trading and treasury operations.

For more information:

Data from treasuries, however, shows some remarkable stability, even if some might be holding on to their coins by a thread. Strategy continues adding to its massive 713,502 BTC treasury, while Cango and its 7,982 BTC stash shows no distress despite trading at 0.35x mNAV.

When observing which companies are selling and which are holding, there’s a clear division. Companies with operational cash flow like miners, or non-dilutive capital access like Strive, can hold through corrections. 

Companies that depend on equity issuance at compressed mNAVs or which carry debt against their Bitcoin holdings may face forced decisions. 

Most exposed

Our November report did identify specific companies that were “most exposed to mark-to-market losses” based on their high purchase prices. 

To name a few: Trump Media, Strive, MetaPlanet, Semler Scientific, and ProCap. The report warned that “even large players like Strategy, Coinbase, and Hut 8 are near or below cost basis at $69,000.”

But the report's most prescient call concerned companies that would face “liquidity pressure.” We’re talking about the smaller, leveraged balance sheets that have been showing cracks for months. Sequans, Bitdeer, Genius Group, and KindlyMD all appear on both November’s seller list and today's distressed watchlist. 

These weren’t random selections. They were balance sheets where holding through corrections was mathematically difficult.

Something that the November report missed, however, was the resilience of mining-based accumulation. American Bitcoin Corp wasn't on the risk radar, yet it added 745 BTC in January alone while trading at a 182% premium. Cango, previously seen as a peripheral player, has maintained more than 12 consecutive weeks of steady production regardless of Bitcoin's price — and its mNAV. 

Capital Structure

Strive’s $225 million SATA offering — oversubscribed at $600 million in orders — demonstrates that institutional capital remains available for treasuries with zero debt and clear paths to Bitcoin per share growth.

What’s more, the company retired $110 million in legacy debt and bought 333 BTC despite being underwater. 

How? By using non-dilutive capital that doesn’t compress shareholder economics. 

Mining operations show similar pliability. American Bitcoin’s 2.8x mNAV reflects market recognition that operational production provides countercyclical advantages. 

Strategy’s position, meanwhile, demonstrates the advantages it has at scale. Despite carrying approximately $6.4 billion in unrealized losses, the company continues deploying capital weekly through ATM programs, relying on institutional credibility and more than $8 billion in remaining shelf capacity.

At Risk

Miners aside, a fair few companies find themselves in a tricky situation. 

The highest-risk segment includes treasury companies with elevated average cost basis (>$90,000), dependence on equity issuance, and mNAV compression below 0.5x. 

Take U.S.-based DDC Enterprise. The company has conducted some aggressive recent buying (500 BTC across three weeks in January), while trading at a 0.53x mNAV with undisclosed funding sources and negative enterprise value that suggests depleting cash reserves.

Trump Media holds 11,542 BTC accumulated at elevated prices, trading at 3.59x mNAV — a 259% premium — yet faces political uncertainty that could evaporate the valuation premium if sentiment shifts. 

Smaller vehicles like ProCap Financial (5,000 BTC), and UK-based The Smarter Web Company (2,674 BTC at -21% unrealized loss) lack the scale, capital access, or operational cash flow to weather extended corrections.

Bitcoin at $60,000

As Bitcoin falls to $60,000, companies that were -10% to -20% underwater quickly descend to -30% to -40%. 

Convertible debt structures begin triggering covenant concerns, preferred equity becomes harder to issue, and equity raises become mathematically untenable for shareholder value creation.

The likely result: accelerated consolidation. Larger treasuries with durable capital access (Strategy, Strive, MARA) could acquire distressed smaller players, absorbing their Bitcoin holdings at discounts. Mining operations face hash rate economics rather than capital markets pressure, potentially creating expansion opportunities while equity-funded peers retrench.

Conversely, a move back to $80,000 to $90,000 would ease immediate pressure but still wouldn’t resolve structural issues. Companies that accumulated at more than $100,000 remain considerably underwater, while mNAV compression persists. 

Finally, whether Bitcoin accumulation alone can reliably create shareholder value remains an open question. The November report concluded this phase would “separate firms with durable financing from firms dependent on rising Bitcoin prices.” 

At $63,000, that separation is accelerating. 

Special thanks to our partners:

• AnchorWatch. AnchorWatch makes Bitcoin ownership safer and easier by combining advanced custody expertise with industry-grade insurance. As a Lloyd’s of London Coverholder, it writes specialized policies that address digital-asset risks, giving clients trusted coverage and peace of mind. Learn more: AnchorWatch

• Arch Lending. Get instant, secure loans backed by your Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Solana—no need to sell your assets. Arch Lending offers fast approvals and trusted custody for both individuals and institutions. Learn more: Arch Lending

• Cadena Bitcoin. A p2p bitcoin lending marketplace with a unique emphasis on working with treasury firms and businesses, as well as the savvy bitcoin-native investors who visit our website. Learn more: Cadena Bitcoin

• Coinkite. Coinkite is a leader in security and hardware manufacturing and the maker of some of the most iconic Bitcoin products, such as OPENDIME, COLDCARD, BLOCKCLOCK, SATSCARD, TAPSIGNER and SATSCHIP. Learn more: Coinkite

• Cryptio. Cryptio is an enterprise-grade accounting software platform built specifically for digital assets and cryptocurrencies. It enables businesses to transform blockchain transaction data from multiple exchanges and custodians into auditable financial records, supporting compliance with GAAP and IFRS standards. Learn more: Cryptio

• The Hemisphere Foundation. Hemisphere develops open-source solutions designed to help treasury teams securely manage, deploy, and optimize their BTC holdings, with benefits of self-custody and Bitcoin native deployment. Learn more: The Hemisphere Foundation

• Orange Wheel Advisors. Orange Wheel Advisors is a strategic consulting firm that helps companies navigate Bitcoin’s impact on corporate finance and competitive strategy. With expertise spanning treasury management, payments, capital structure, mining, and investor communications, they provide executive education, tailored strategies, and execution support to guide businesses through the global monetary transition. Learn more: Orange Wheel Advisors

• o21 Solutions. o21 develops and implements Bitcoin-powered corporate strategy, transforming value chains with strategic expertise and tailored advisory services, with a focus on both Treasury and Operations - balance sheet accumulation, mining, and payments. Reduce cycle time through the corporate Bitcoin adoption journey through our pre-packaged or tailored engagements. Learn more: o21 Solutions

• Psalion. Psalion is a Bitcoin and digital-asset yield manager that offers institutional‑style investment strategies to professional investors, family offices, corporates, and private clients via separately managed accounts and yield funds. Learn more: Psalion

• Secure Digital Markets (SDM) provides unparalleled liquidity, execution speed, and bespoke customer service, making it the top choice for institutional investors seeking reliable digital asset trading solutions. With deep expertise in capital markets and strict regulatory standards, SDM stands out as the premier platform for all digital asset treasury teams looking to optimize their trading and treasury operations. Learn more: Secure Digital Markets (SDM)

• Stacking Sats Inc. Official IT partner at BitcoinTreasuries, Stacking Sats Inc via its subsidiary, Framework IT, is a managed IT services firm with a 17-year track record of providing best-in-class IT support, strategy, and cybersecurity, boasting high recurring revenue and long-term client contracts. It’s also one of the top 20 holders of Bitcoin among global private companies. Learn more: Stacking Sats Inc

• XCE. An executive recruitment group that combines a profitable recruitment business with a Bitcoin treasury strategy. The company turns over a decade of executive recruitment experience and four years of Bitcoin accumulation into a public Bitcoin‑powered growth engine, using a proven operating business to drive Bitcoin treasury accumulation. Learn more: XCE

• Zaprite. Zaprite is a non-custodial payment platform that allows individuals and businesses to seamlessly accept both bitcoin (on-chain and lightning) and fiat payments in a unified, customizable checkout experience. Users can easily issue invoices, generate payment links, and connect multiple wallets or custodial accounts, all while handling their own funds directly. Learn more: Zaprite

Our events calendar:

• Bitcoin Investor Week | Feb. 9 – 13. Join us in NYC for Bitcoin Investor Week 2026 — the world’s largest gathering of Bitcoin investors and institutional leaders. Hosted by Anthony Pompliano, the event brings together allocators, hedge fund managers, family offices, executives, and policymakers for a high-conviction look at Bitcoin’s role in global markets. GET 15% OFF GA TICKETS WITH CODE DOTNET.

• Front Run: The Bitcoin Treasuries Pre-Party | April 26. Join us in Las Vegas for a private, off-agenda gathering for the people actually shaping Bitcoin treasury strategy. Hosted by Bitcoin Treasuries Media and BitcoinTreasuries.net, it brings together operators, CFOs, allocators, founders, and board-level decision-makers before the noise begins.

Over To You: What Do You Track?

We want to make this the go-to resource for corporate Bitcoin strategy — and that means learning from our readers.

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